Is Tooth and Nail Viable for Regionals?

Regionals is just a couple of months away and I've been sharpening the deck which I assumed I'd play, Tooth and Nail. It's generally regarded as a Tier 1 deck but is it prepared to deal with all the hate associated with being the kind of the hill?

I favor the Bloom and Nail build which uses Vernal Bloom rather than the Urzatron or Cloudposts for acceleration. I've found this version much less vulnerable to land destruction or simple bad luck. I originally ran the Urzatron version but often found myself with either tons of mana available due to having the tron but unable to go off because I only had one forest (either due to bad luck or ld) or with two of the three pieces of the 'tron and the inability to find the third piece or keep it in play.

And now between mono blue which will spend the first four turns accumulating counter magic and bounce and white weenie which can just kill you in four turns, I'm wondering if the plan to build up to a nine cc Sorcery is going to work after all.

I recently played this version at a local "box" tournament (two boxes were split among the top four players). This wasn't a highly publicized event but still drew top players due to the prize support. Several players with GP, PTQ, GPT and/or JSS Top 8's played. I wound up 2-3 in the swiss and really should have been 1-4, and got beaten by a variety of decks. Maybe I just had an off day since I'd finished 4-0 at a FNM a couple of weeks before with the same build but I'm thinking not.

Here's what I ran:

Land (22)
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17 Forest
3 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Swamp

Spells (16)
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3 Cranial Extraction
2 Fireball
4 Kodama's Reach
4 Tooth and Nail
3 Vernal Bloom
Artifacts (3)
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3 Sensei's Divining Top

Creatures (19)
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4 Birds of Paradise
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Duplicant
4 Eternal Witness
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Mephidross Vampire
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Sundering Titan
1 Triskelion
1 Viridian Zealot

Sideboard (15)
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2 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Duplicant
3 Echoing Decay
1 Leonin Abunas
4 Naturalize
1 Platinum Angel
3 Silent Arbiter

The results:

Round 1 vs. mono black Death Cloud
0-2 match and overall

My opponent was the player who I'd originally seen put Vernal Bloom in Tooth and Nail so he knew my deck very well. I had main deck Cranials to deal with his threats and managed to cast one in game one but his timing was amazing. In game one he DC'd for one when all I had in my hand was the Tooth which was going to kill him the next turn. In game two he used Cranial Extraction just in time for the same effect.

Nezumi Shortfang was very good in this matchup and is, I think, underrated. I played it in my aborted version of mono black and decided to take it out as being two slow. After watching it in action against me I'm going back to the position that's it quite good. It forces your opponent to deal with it or they will lose their hand and take up to six damage each turn. Nasty.

Round 2 vs. UW control
2-1 match
Overall 1-1 matches, 2-3 games

Here I played a friend who has helped me playtest my deck. He was playing a deck I'd created which countered or destroyed everything until it can get a Pristine Angel out and keep it untapped with Pulse of the Fields. He took a chance and put the angel out early in game one and just rolled over me when I had no response. Game two I got tooth early. Game three he had me down to four when I Toothed. He didn't attack the last turn, allowing me to win. Not a good sign for the rest of the day when I basically started 0-2.

Round 3 vs. mono green Beacon
0-2 match
Overall 1-2 matches, 2-5 games

My opponent was playing a somewhat rogue version of this deck which actually used Wood Elves, but he was able to accelerate into early Creeping Mold and Plow Under followed by Beacons in both games. I just couldn't keep up with the creature parade and the mana denial slowed me down just enough that I couldn't Tooth in time.

Round 4 vs. green/blue Meloku/Rude Awakening
2-0 match
Overall 2-2 matches, 4-5 games

I played against one of the younger players in attendance here, no surprise looking at my record. Game one I just played more threats than he could deal with. Game two he made play mistake which cost him the game. When he Quashed my Tooth and Nail he saw that I had Echoing Decay in my hand. I still had it a couple of turns later when he cast Rude Awakening entwined and swung with everything. I happily cast Echoing Decay targeting an Island, then blocked his Minamo, School at Water's Edge, thus denying him any sources of blue. I swung in with various creatures for the win after that.

Round 5 vs. mono blue
0-2 match
Overall 2-3 matches, 4-7 games

I played an experienced mono blue player who just pecked me to death with little critters. I was in control game one when he was finally able to bounce, steal or counter all my threats and just whittled away at my life with a Thieving Magpie. Game two I managed to force through two Tooth and Nails but by the time I'd done so many of my threats were in the graveyard already. I'd boarded out Darksteel Colossus to avoid having him Briberied away. This turned out to be a mistake in this match but since Kiki was already in the yard the Colossus might not have mattered anyway.

So what to do if I can't beat blue, black or green? I have added two more Boseiju's to the sideboard. In previous testing I'd found that two was enough but I was taught the error of my ways. Against mono blue you simply MUST have a Boseiju early to force a quick Tooth through. Having more than one isn't bad because they will usually board them in too so you'll probably lose the first one.I'm also thinking Beacon of Creation in the sideboard would be good instead of the Arbiters. Against mono green or mono white I need some blockers to give me time to set up for the Tooth and an alternate win condition. I think the Abunas/Platinum Angel combo will finally have to come out for that. I'm not quite sold on this idea; I think Rude Awakening might be good instead but seems like more of a "win more" card to me. Also, the threat of having my own land killed or stolen is not appealing since most of the deck revolves around having lots of land in play.

I'm also considering taking out red to put in some Oblivion Stones. Fireball was an alternate win condition in the past but with both mono green and black running mana denial and mono blue just countering such a threat it seems too slow for this metagame. Blowing up the world would be far more useful, even if I have to sacrifice a Bird to do it, and with a Bird I can force one out turn two against those speedy white weenie and mono green decks. Most white weenie decks I've played against don't have any artifact destruction main so they'll be caught off guard in game one. The Stone doesn't play well with Vernal Bloom either but there are times against almost every deck when a reset button would be useful. If not, just the threat of the Stone on the board will make some players hold back and that will give you enough time to Tooth.

So here's my revised deck list.

I'll post results as soon as I pilot this in another tournament but early results look good. I can still get the turn four Tooth and I have more ways to deal with an early Nezumi, Rude Awakening/Beacon, or Hokori, Dust Drinker due to the main deck Echoing Decay and board sweeping ability with the Oblivion Stones.

So is Tooth and Nail a good Regionals choice? I think it's too early to tell but you'd better have a way to deal with quick bursts of creatures and blue countering or the answer is "no."

Land (22)
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19 Forest
3 Swamp

Spells (12)
----------
4 Echoing Decay
4 Kodama's Reach
4 Tooth and Nail
4 Vernal Bloom

Artifacts (7)
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3 Oblivion Stone
4 Sensei's Divining Top

Creatures (19)
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4 Birds of Paradise
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Duplicant
3 Eternal Witness
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1 Mephidross Vampire
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Sundering Titan
2 Triskelion
1 Viridian Zealot

Sideboard (15)
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2 Beacon of Creation
4 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
3 Cranial Extraction1 Duplicant
4 Naturalize
1 Oblivion Stone